South Africans are using more mobile data than ever before. MTN South Africa recorded a 27.9% rise in network traffic over the first nine months of 2026, with postpaid customers consuming an average of 32.8GB per month, up 31.9%. Prepaid users are also going online more, averaging 5.2GB a month, a 28.9% increase. Smartphone penetration sits at 70.6%, meaning the country is broadly connected. The problem is that all this activity is not showing up in MTN's earnings in any meaningful way.
Data revenue grew 4.7% over those nine months, nudging up to 6% in the third quarter. But service revenue rose just 1% year-on-year and was flat in Q3 alone. MTN Group CEO Ralph Mupita acknowledged the shortfall directly in the company's latest trading update, saying MTN South Africa's performance "remains below our medium-term target," while adding that he was encouraged by improving prepaid trends month on month.
Prepaid is where the pressure is sharpest. Revenue in that segment fell 3% over the nine months, and MTN's prepaid customer base shrank 6.9% to 27.4 million. Its total South African base dipped 2.7% to 39 million. The company says it is intentionally prioritising a higher-value prepaid customer mix, while also pointing to softness in voice revenue and lower mobile termination rates as contributing factors.
The contrast with MTN's other markets is striking. Nigeria's data revenue grew 31.4% in the third quarter. Ghana's jumped 39.9%. South Africa's 6% looks modest by comparison, which suggests the group's ability to turn data demand into actual revenue depends heavily on the specific dynamics of each market, including pricing pressures, competition, and what consumers can realistically afford.
The question MTN South Africa now faces is whether cleaner subscriber numbers and improving monthly trends are early signs of a turning point, or simply a floor that still needs a ceiling.
Originally published by TechCabal.