Disruption in the Black Sea caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has sent the price of wheat up significantly, in a move that could have significant ramifications for food prices - and therefore food security - across Africa.
Wheat prices have climbed significantly since the start of the year, with wheat futures up around 35% since the start of 2026 and 20% within the last two months alone.
Russia and Ukraine are two of the biggest suppliers of grains to Africa. Between them, the two countries supplied roughly 44% of Africa's imported wheat in 2024, with Russia the single largest supplier of wheat to the continent. North Africa is particularly dependent on Russian and Ukrainian imports: in the first half of this year, more than 82% of Egypt's wheat imports came from Russia and Ukraine.
Andrey Sizov, CEO at agricultural markets research firm SovEcon, tells African Business that, since July, Ukraine and Russia have exchanged attacks on each other's Black Sea ports, putting downward pressure on available wheat supply and sending prices soaring. [Pictured above, the destroyed civilian cargo ship Golden Leo on the Black Sea, following an alleged Russian missile strike.]
Originally published by African Business.