South Africa heads to municipal polls on November 4, and the country is watching closely. Voters will elect councils across all 257 municipalities, including the eight metropolitan areas that power much of the national economy. For the governing African National Congress, this is a high-stakes moment: after losing its national parliamentary majority in 2024 and entering a coalition with the opposition Democratic Alliance, the party now faces the electorate on local ground.
The big issue on voters' minds is basic services, or rather the lack of them. Across cities, towns, and rural communities, South Africans are dealing with water shortages, sewage spills, electricity disruptions, uncollected rubbish, crumbling roads, and housing backlogs. Institute for Security Studies researcher Alize le Roux puts it plainly: if these problems are not urgently addressed, South Africa's cities risk becoming hotspots of inequality, unemployment, and governance failure.
The numbers are already telling a complicated story. Fitch-affiliated BMI forecasts the ANC could pull in only 30 to 40 percent of the national municipal vote, which would leave it as the largest party in many areas without a clear majority. The DA is making a hard push for Johannesburg and Pretoria, former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe party is going all in on its KwaZulu-Natal stronghold, and the Economic Freedom Fighters are positioning to play kingmaker wherever the numbers are tight.
Ambrosé Ray du Plessis, a political studies and governance lecturer at the University of the Free State, expects a significant number of hung councils, with few parties reaching the 50-percent-plus-one threshold needed to govern alone. That means coalition negotiations, and lots of them. With the next general election sitting on the horizon in 2029, what gets decided in those backroom talks will matter far beyond the municipal level.
Originally published by African Business.