A new round of US tariffs is quietly drawing seven African economies into its crosshairs. The Trump administration has proposed a 12.5 percentage point tariff on imports from Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa, citing what it calls a failure to prohibit and enforce bans on forced labour. The move follows a June 3rd report from the US Trade Representative, which concluded that 54 economies, including these seven, had not met the required labour standards after investigations launched in March covering 60 countries.
Because a blanket 10% tariff already applies to these countries, the real-world bite of the proposed 12.5% addition is more nuanced than the headline suggests. Analysis by ONE Data using effective tariff rates, which account for the actual mix of goods a country exports and the duties those goods already attract, shows the maximum additional burden any country can feel is 2.5 percentage points.
Egypt comes out most exposed. With $2.6 billion in annual exports to the US and more than half of that tied up in textiles and apparel, the country faces an effective tariff rate increase of 1.9 percentage points, from 11.9% to 13.8%. Knitted garments ($687 million), woven garments ($502 million) and carpets ($124 million) all face the full 2.5 percentage point increase.
Morocco ($1.8 billion in US exports) would see its effective rate climb from 9.9% to 11.4%, driven largely by woven and knitted apparel, prepared fish and edible fruit. South Africa carries the largest US export base on the continent at $14.6 billion, but its effective tariff rate increase is a comparatively modest 0.9 percentage points, reaching 10.4%. Precious metals, stones and jewellery account for 57% of its export basket and are the single biggest driver of that change.
The proposed action still has to move through the executive process, which means the final shape and scope of these tariffs could shift. For African exporters in textiles, agriculture and commodities, the next few weeks bear watching closely.
Originally published by African Business.