When missiles started flying between the US, Israel, and Iran, Nigeria's oil sector quietly moved to the front of the line. With Iranian crude suddenly under even greater pressure in global markets, buyers began looking for alternative suppliers, and Nigeria, sitting on some of the continent's largest reserves, was well positioned to benefit.
The opportunity is real. Higher demand for Nigerian crude could push export revenues up at a moment when the federal government badly needs the cash. For a country that still leans heavily on oil to fund its budget, a sustained price bump or volume increase from this kind of disruption is the kind of windfall that can shift quarterly numbers fast.
But the gains abroad do not automatically translate to relief at home. Nigerians at the pump have learned that lesson more than once. The domestic cost question, whether higher global oil prices feed back into local fuel prices or strain the subsidy conversation further, is the part of this story still unfolding.
The world is watching what happens next in the Middle East. So is Abuja.
Originally published by BusinessDay.