Silvana Tenreyro stepped into her first IMF World Economic Outlook press briefing in Bangkok, Thailand, with numbers rather than reassurances. The newly appointed director of the IMF Research Department opened by telling the room that global activity is projected to grow at 3.1% this year, 40 basis points lower than last year, before rising to 3.4% in 2027. It is a picture of an economy still moving, but moving more slowly.
Tenreyro framed that slowdown as the result of two forces shaping the outlook, and the first one she named is hard to ignore. Rising energy and commodity prices, triggered by conflict, are acting as what she called "a negative global supply shock, driving up prices and hampering activity." That kind of pressure does not land evenly, and for economies already managing tight fiscal space, it compounds quickly.
Her broader message carried both credit and a warning. The world economy has held up against overlapping geopolitical, climate and fiscal pressures, and Tenreyro acknowledged that staying power directly. But she was clear that holding up is not the same as moving forward. "The economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits," she said.
What comes next, in her words, is a shift "from coping to rebuilding, restoring fiscal space and supply-side resilience" so that countries can grow sustainably. The question now is which economies have the room to make that shift, and which are still just coping.
Originally published by African Business.