El Niño is here. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared on 11 June that an El Niño event had begun, after monitoring confirmed that ocean temperatures in equatorial areas of the Pacific Ocean had remained more than 0.5 °C above average for several months.
An El Niño event occurs when trade winds in the Pacific reverse direction, causing warmer water to flow into central and eastern areas of the world's largest ocean. More warm water then evaporates in the eastern Pacific, which falls as intense rainfall, which in turn triggers disruption to weather patterns globally.
While El Niño is a natural phenomenon that typically comes about every 2 to 7 years, this year's event is expected to be among the strongest ever. This is partly because climate change means baseline sea surface temperatures are higher than ever, creating a double-whammy effect.
NOAA predicts a 62% chance that water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will rise more than 2 °C above average, the threshold for a "very strong" El Niño. Much higher localised temperature discrepancies have already been detected in some parts of the region. This matters for Africa because the "Godzilla" El Niño looks set to trigger an unprecedented global wave of extreme weather.
Originally published by African Business.