Can Tanzania become an upper-middle income country?

Tanzania has set its sights on becoming a $1 trillion, upper‑middle‑income economy by mid-century. Under a long‑term plan known as Vision 2050, the country is seeking to grow the size of its economy tenfold from current levels and to increase GDP per capita to $7,000 from $1,318.

The country's population is projected to increase from 69m presently to more than 118m by 2050, a demographic surge that underlines the rapid pace of economic growth needed to create jobs, raise incomes, and improve living standards to the levels targeted under Vision 2050. Launched last year by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, this new economic blueprint calls for a shift from exporting raw materials to producing more valuable finished goods. To support this industrialisation drive, the plan prioritises human capital investments, including expanded access to healthcare and the introduction of skills-based education at all learning levels.

It positions the private sector as the engine of growth and emphasises structural reforms to enhance economic competitiveness, improve the business and investment environment, and reduce regulatory compliance costs. It also outlines measures to boost climate resilience, given the country's heavy reliance on agriculture, which accounts for nearly a quarter of its GDP.

Vision 2050 is ambitious. Tanzania's real GDP expanded by 6% in 2025, up from 5.5% growth the previous year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects sustained growth of 6.3% to 6.5% through 2028. While this growth rate is among the highest on the continent, it still falls short of what is required to meet Vision 2050's targets. To grow the economy tenfold in 25 years, Tanzania would need to average annual growth of at least 9.6%.

Originally published by African Business.

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