Right now, with COP31 scheduled for Antalya and COP32 set to land on African soil in Addis Ababa, the continent's negotiators are arriving with something sharper than hope. They are carrying numbers. Africa produces around 4% of global emissions, yet loses an estimated 2 to 5% of its GDP every year to climate extremes. That is money pulled away from hospitals and schools to pay for floods and droughts. The finance meant to close that gap has not come close: developing countries will need between $310 billion and $365 billion annually for adaptation alone by 2035, but in 2024 the total from developed countries reached only about $31.7 billion.
The problem is not just the size of the gap. It is also how the money arrives. Too much of what does flow in comes as loans, adding to a debt burden that already squeezes out spending on health, education, and energy access. African negotiators are pushing for finance that is predictable and grant-based, and for adaptation finance to be at least tripled to around $120 billion a year by 2035. Even that figure, they acknowledge, would fall short of actual need. The $300 billion goal agreed at Baku is described as a floor, not a ceiling. The real benchmark on the table is the $1.3 trillion figure identified in the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap.
There is also a harder conversation happening about what finance should actually build. Value addition, the ability to process raw materials at home rather than export them cheap, is at the center of Africa's economic ambitions. But negotiators are being direct about one thing: that conversation is an energy story first. There is no point in calling for local mineral processing if there is no reliable power to run the facilities. Credibility means pairing those calls with a real plan for grids, delivery networks, and the skills to operate them.
Trade has also emerged as a live issue at COP31. Unilateral trade measures from other blocs are increasingly cutting into African countries' market access and industrial capacity, locking them into raw material exports. African delegations plan to push for a dedicated agenda item on trade, creating space to examine how climate-related trade policies are designed, sequenced, and whether they include the flexibilities and support that less industrialised economies require.
A COP hosted in Africa will not automatically deliver for Africa. Antalya is where the foundation either gets laid or gets deferred again. The question Africa is putting plainly to the room: does the finance follow the ambition, and does it actually reach the people who need it?
Originally published by African Business.